Credit appraisel literature review Essay Example for Free

Credit appraisel literature review Essay This chapter is an elucidation of literature relating to the flow of credit from various organised and unorganised sources of housing and real estate finance. The aim of such a perusal is to have a birds eye view of the concurrent and corresponding issues and problems related to the present study. The first part deals with the flow of credit from organised institutions to various sectors like manufacturing industry, private corporate sector and various other industrial concerns. Studies on the institutional flow of credit in Kerala are also discussed. The unorganised sector consisting of indigenous financial agencies is enumerated in the next part. Understanding the operation of and the potential for housing finance is important, since in many developing countries housing policy is about establishing new and more innovative finance policies. 4. 1. 1 The banking system in India comprises of the Reserve Bank of India, Commercial banks and cooperative banks and credit societies. The commercial banks are the premier institutional structure of the 104 banking system. The principal function of these institutions is to satisfy simultaneously the portfolio preferences of the borrowers on one side and the lenders on the other. They mobilise resources from the savers in the form of deposits and extend credit facilities to borrowers in the form of loans, advances and securities. Loans and advances provided by these institutions can be categorised into short-term funds and long-term funds. The latter are advanced for purchase of plant and machinery while the former are provided for purchase of raw materials, stores, spare parts and the like. However following the traditional British banking practice, commercial banks provide more short term funds to the investors in industry and trade than long term loans. The pattern of credit disbursement has undergone substantial changes since 1950. 4. 1. 2 Commercial banks extended credit to commerce and trade to a larger extend than to manufacturing industry until 1958. Since the commencement of the second five Year Plan, which laid emphasis on rapid industrialisation, the pattern of credit flow took a new turn in favour of medium and large industry. As a result, the share of industry, in public and private sectors in total bank credit increased from 34. 8% to 67. 5% during the period 1954 to 1968. Since nationalisation of 14 major commercial banks in July 1969, the Government of India assigned new priorities to commercial banks with regard to the flow of credit to hitherto neglected sectors, called 105 priority sectors. The emphasis thus shifted from industry to the priority sectors. Further the supply of credit was controlled through statutory regulations and monetary regulations. On the other hand the demand for bank credit has also  undergone substantial increase. Factors such as, large growth in the number of industrial units, diversification of existing units, increase in industrial and agricultural production, increasing needs of short and long-term funds to maintain the increased levels of production, pushed up the demand for bank credit. 4. 1. 4 ~ u ~ t and ~ m b e ~ e o k aobserved that the use of funds from a r* banks by the private corporate sector had exceeded its inventory formation. Gupta, has argued that a small portion of such finance should have gone to meet fixed investment. Further, he found the growth rate of physical assets to be more directly and closely related to security issues than bank credit. Hence, he argued that the fast growing firms relied heavily on security issues than the use of bank credit. Arnbegeokar found that the rate of rise in bank credit exceeded that of inventory, sales and output. Further he observed 1 L . S . Gupta (1969). Changing Structure of Industrial Finance in India, The Impoct ojlnstitutional Finance, Clarendon Press: Oxford. 2 N. Ambegaokar (1969). Working Capital Requirement and Availability o f Bank Credit: Indian Processing and Manufacturing Industries, Reserve Bank of India Bulletin Vol XXIII. No:lO. 106 that its dependence on banks for working capital had increased, accompanied by a decline in reliance on other financial institutions. 4. 2 shetty3 assessed the dimensional changes in credit deployment during the first five years of nationalisation in relation to changes in output and prices. The rationale for his analysis was the fact that, in any accepted model of demand for money, one common variable is the gross national product or some other  variant of it in real terms. Consequently, he hypothesised that credit for any sector or industry over a period has to have some relationship with its performance in real terms, particularly output. He observed a declining trend in the credit extended by banks to industries since nationalisation, though it was higher than other sectors. On finding that the share of manufacturing sector in bank credit is higher than its share in Net Domestic Product (NDP) he concludes that increase in bank credit has occurred far in excess of increase in output during the years 1968169 to 1973174. In his other paper, shetty4 observed that the share of medium and large industry in total bank credit had declined due to priority S . L . Shetty (1976). Deployment of Commercial Bank and other lnstitutio~lalCredit: A note on Structure changes. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol XI No: 11, M a y 8th . pp. 696-705. S L Shetty (1978). Performance of Con~mercial Banks since N a t ~ o n a l ~ s a t ~ofn Major Banks: Promises and Realty. Economic and Political o Weekly, Vol. XI1 No. 31, 32 34, August, pp. 1407-1451. sector lending. Another observation in line with his earlier finding was that growth in bank credit had always been disproportionate to growth of their physical output, especially in industries like cotton textiles. His observation particularly for the years 1975-76 and 1976-77 revealed: (a) Increase in average bank credit had been higher than the growth of NDP originating in registered manufacturing sector even at current prices (b) An appreciable increase in the rate of short-term bank credit to inventories; and (c) Relatively higher reliance on trade credit. In line with these observations, he suggested policies to scrutinise credit claims vigorously and relate credit to the genuine production requirements so that funds are not tied up with these large borrowers. 4. 2. 2 K. S. R. ~ a o carried out an econometric exercise on the determinants of demand for bank credit of some selected industries for the period between 1970-71 and 1984-85. He observed that output of these industries was the most important factor in determining its demand for bank credit whereas, interest rate of K S . R . Rao (1988). Demand for Commercial Bank Credit 1970-71 t o A Study Thiruvananthapuram 1984-85: of Selected Indian Industries. M. Phil Thesis, CDS 108 banks and relative rate of interest of other sources of borrowing played only a secondary role. Price of output was also found to have affected the demand for credit significantly. The relative interest rate variable was significant with respect to industries like textiles, engineering and total manufacturing, while it was not significant for industries like sugar and other food products and chemicals. Divatia and shankar6 in their paper discussed the role of  internal and external sources of funds and their components in financing capital formation of the private corporate sector. The study was based on the RBI company finance studies relating to medium and large public and private limited companies and covered the period 1961-76. They also discussed the trends and patterns of financing for four individual industries, viz, cotton textiles, jute, sugar and cement. 4. 4 S. ~ d v e had some interesting findings in his article Financial Practices in Indian Corporate Sector, based on the RBI company finance data. He underlined the rising dependence on borrowed capital in relation to the total capital employed in the 6 V. V. Divat~a a1 (1979). Capital Formation and its Financing in the et Private Corporate Sector 1961-62 t o 1975-76. The Journal of Income ; Wealth, April 118-152. 7 S. Adve (1980). Financial Practices in Indian Corporate Sector, Inter-Group and Inter-Size Differences, Economic and Political Weekly, Feb. 23. 109 Indian corporate sector. Trade credit was pointed out to be important sources of capital when the bank credit was squeezed. Making an industry-wise analysis, the author came to  the conclusion that the industries with large profit margins and those with large depreciation and development rebate reserves had a relatively lower order of overall indebtedness and many of them also had a lower order of bank borrowings in relation to overall indebtedness. Industries with high profit margin such as silk and rayon textiles, aluminium, basic industrial chemicals and medicine and pharmaceutical preparations had lower proportion of borrowed funds as compared to the average of the medium and large public Ltd. companies. The extensive study viewed that the growth  from of institutional finance emerged in lndia due to structural change for industrial financing system with wide change of socio-political situations in lndia. He attempted to measure overall impact of financial institutions on capital formation in the organised private sector as also the allocative efficiency of financial system. He observed that during the first pla? financial assistance rendered by special institutions represented only 4. 1 per cent of gross fixed investment in private industry, which rose to 7. 9 per cent in the second plan and further to 18.1% in the third plan period. He also 8 L . S . Gupta ( 1 9 6 9 ) . Changing Structure of Industrial Finance in Indra, The Impacr ~flnstrtutronalFinance, Clarendon Press: Oxford. 110 found that commercial banks remained the most important single agency for financing the private corporate industry and LIC was the single largest purchaser of industrial securities and the underwriter of new issues of large and established companies. 4. 6 M. S. ~ o s h examined the role of financial intermediaries in i~ providing finance to large-scale industries in the private sector. After analysing the contribution of each important intermediary towards industrial development in India, he estimated that these intermediaries have participated with 17% of investment in various industries against 39% in share capital of public Ltd. companies. 4. 7 Studies on Institutional Credit in Kerala Among the studies on the state of Kerala, few have looked at the inter regional development of banking. The study conducted by the Travancore-Cochin banking enquiry c ~ r n m i t t e ewas the first of ~ its kind in the post-Independence era. The report traced the development of banking in the two regions of Travancore and Cochin. It noted that in terms of the average number of people per bank office, they had the smallest figure in the whole of lndia. It was noted that the expansion of commercial banks in the rural areas is more pronounced than in any other state. 9 M. S. Joshi (1965). Financial Intermediaries in India. Makhanlal ; Sons Pvt. Ltd, Bombay. 10 Gok (Various Years) Kerala Economic Review, Thimvananthapuram. 111 4. 7. 1 M. A. Oornrnenl historically reviewed the expansion of commercial banking in the Travancore-Cochin region prior to the period of planning. He noted some of the salient features of banking in Kerala: their community or sectarian origin and ownership, the rural areas bias, over extension of credit and predominance of small accounts. He noted the presence of a special concentration of banking in Tiruvalla and Trichur. 4. 7. 2 The Kerala Planning Board (1982) too made an effort to understand the performance of commercial banks in Kerala after nationalisation. This study was confined only to a quantitative assessment of the performance of nationalised banks and looked at the mobilisation of deposits, trend in credit expansion and the sectoral distribution of bank advances. Even though the number of bank offices in the state is more than that of other states, some districts like Malappuram and ldukki lacked banking infrastructure. Ernakulam was found to be the best-banked district in the state followed closely by Trivandrum. It accounted for 22 per cent of the deposits and 30 per cent of the credit disbursed in the state. Idukki, Malapuram and Palghat were way behind. ~-. II M A . Oommen (1976). Rise and Growth of Banking In Kerala. Social . Scieflt~. sl. Vol 5 . 8 0 3 112 4. 7. 3 Among the more recent studies, Sunandas study of institutional agricultural credit in Kerala highlights the inter district disparity. She reviews the socio-economic background for the origin and growth of banks in Kerala (performance of commercial banks and co-operatives only) and concentrates on the agricultural credit disbursed by them. In credit per hectare, Ernakulam and Trichur stood highest while Palghat ranked the lowest. Regional disparity of agricultural credit from commercial banks decreased between 1974175 and 1985186 while that of co-operatives increased. She has used Principal Component Analysis to explain the variation. Three sets of variables are used for explaining the variation of credit co-operatives viz, per hectare from commercial banks and Banking variables, Asset variables and Productivity variables. 4. 7. 4 The book Reminiscences, written by Shri. K. C. Mammen ~ a ~ ~ i throws ~ l a i some light on the banking developments that took place in Kerala prior to independence and also the role played by the Christian community in developing the banking system in the state. It also contains the history of the National Quilon Bank, which was the premier bank at that time and explains the reasons for its failure. S. Sunanda (1991). Institutional Credit for Agriculture in Kerala-A Disaggregated Analysis, M. Phil dissertation, CDS, Thiruvananthapuram. K. C. Mammen Mappilai (1959). Reminiscences, Malayala Manorama Printing and Publishing Co. Kottayam, Kerala. 113 4. 7. 5 Shri. A. K. Seshadris A Swadeshi Bank from South lndial4 gives an account of the banking crisis that occurred in the state in 1930 due to the failure of the National Quilon Bank and that in 1960 consequent upon the liquidation of the Palai central Bank, Palai. 4. 7. 6 The Indian Banks ~ s s o c i a t i o n ~ , Bombay published a book Keralas Banking Profile in 1987. This book contains a quick review on the banking and the economic scenario in Kerala from 1969 to 1987 and also has dealt with the impact of the non-banking private financial institutions on the banking system in the state. It also contains a quick analysis of the role of the NRI sector in the growth of the commercial banks in Kerala. Though the book contains information regarding deposits, advances, number of branches, net state domestic product, per capita income, per capita deposits etc, it does not make any attempt to analyse these factors and to find out whether any relation exists between these factors. In 1992 Canara Bank, the convener of State Level Bankers Committee Kerala had brought out a brochure on Keralas banking profile. This book contains a review of the district and state wise performance of the commercial banks during the 3 year period from 1989 to 1992. But this does not contain certain vital information like I4 AK Seshadrl (1982). A Swadeshi Bank,from South India, Indian Bank, Madras. I I n d ~ a nBanks Association (1987). Kerala: A Banking Profile, Bombay. 114 classification of deposits and advances according to population group wise, a review on the productivity of banks in Kerala etc. Indigenous Financial Agencies The availability of literature on indigenous financial system is scarce. The Central and Provincial Banking Enquiry Committee Reports give comprehensive information regarding the working of the agencies. But even such information appears to have become outdated in many respects as the enquiry was conducted more than 55 years ago. The Rural credit survey and Central banking Enquiry Committee attempted to obtain quantitative information, including capital invested in the business from the agencies but failed in their task. Hence as far as the quantitative aspect is concerned, i t is impossible to collect correct information from these agencies as their nature of business is selective and also as their exact number is not known. 4. 8. 1 G. ~ a r k a l brings out some of the problems of indigenous banking in India in the present context of economic development. He attempts a scientific definition of the term agencies and points out how the earlier definitions were defective. Karkals book estimates the magnitude of capital involved in the unorganised G Karkal ( 1 967). Unorganised Money Market in India. Lalvani Publishing House Bombay. 115 market through the help of data regarding Hundi sales. With the help of available data the study points out the nature of the interest rate in the various rural-urban regions. It indicates the trend of and effect of the contact between the two markets viz. , the organised money market and unorganised financial sector. Again the study discusses the methods of strengthening the Agencies. Here it pleads for the recognition of the hundi as a liquid asset at least in the case of trusted indigenous bankers, thereby giving an impetus to the unorganised sector to encourage the bill business. Provides an interesting account of the functioning of private financing firms in Kerala. The study based on a survey of the private financing firms in Trichur town seeks to examine the factors, which contributed to the emergence of these institutions, the method of their functioning and their importance as a parallel banking system. However he is silent on questions such as types of borrowers, total amount of uncounted money generated by the private financing firms, safety of depositors money and so on. 4. 8. 3 D. ~ a j a s e k h a r based on a survey of 8 private financing  firms in Bellary town in Karnataka tries to probe the factors B A Prakash (1984). Private Financing firms in Kerala, Economic and Political Weekly. Vol X I X . Dec. 15. D Rajasckhar (1988). Private Financing Firms in Karnataka: A boom for tax dodgcrs W o r k ~ n g Paper No: 228. CDS, Thil-uvananthapuram. 116 responsible for the growth of private financing firms. It also documents and analyses the functioning of private financing firms and critically examines the type of borrowers, the use pattern of the borrowings and also tries to estimate the black money generated by the private financing firms. 4. 9 H o u s i n g Finance A strong relationship between levels of urbanisation and wealth has been demonstrated both theoretically and empirically in numerous s t u d i e ~ . Traditionally, faced with other development ~,~~ priorities, governments and international agencies have been reluctant to encourage investment in housing, which has often been seen as an item of consumption (UNCHS 1991). ~Moreover, many of the first waves of housing finance institutions were poorly managed and contributed to macro-economic disruption. Even by the late 1980s en and^^ was able to observe that few aspects S . Malpezz~ (1990). Urban Housing and financial markets: Some ~nternationnlCo~iiparisons,(Jrhnn Studies, 27, 6 : 971-1022. World Bank (1993). Housing: Enabling Markets t o Work, W o r l d Bank iolic), Pnper Washtngton D C : World Bank. U n ~ t e d Nations Centrc for Human Settlements (1991). Integrating Housing Finance into the National Finance Systems of Developing Countries: Exploring the Potentials and the Problems, Nairobi: UNCHS. R. M. Buckley er a / . (1989). Housi~ig policy in developing economies: evaluating thc macroeconomic impacts, Review uf Urban ; Regional llevelopmenr Studies. 2: 27-47. B. Renand (1987). Financing Shelter in L. Rodwin (ed) Shelter, Settlement nnd I l e v e i o p m e n f Boston: Allen and Unwin. 117 of economic development remain as unexplored and poorly analysed as the potential to induce financial development and ways to improve the financing of housing. These practical and conceptual difficulties notwithstanding, during the 1990s housing finance moved to the top of the urban agenda. Under pressure to reform urban management, governments have made important legislative and institutional reforms to enable private institutions and non-governmental organisations (NGOS) to have a greater role in the provision of housing finance. The lead of the World Bank has been especially important in making the shift from housing projects towards the delivery of housing financez4 from 1983 to 1988. Bank lending for housing finance exceeded the total for sites and services from 1972 to 1988, and by 1989 almost one-half of all Bank urban lending was for housing finance programmes. z5This reorientation went beyond the need to deliver more and better housing, to make urban policy compatible with macro-economic management, particularly in the context of structural adjustment programmes in which control of foreign exchange risks and fiscal policy have been paramount. World Bank (1993). The Housing Indicators program: Preliminary Result, Washington, DC World Bank. R. M. Buckley el a ! . (1989). Housing policy in developing economies: evaluating the macroeconomic impacts, Review of Urban d; Regional llevelopment S t u d i e . ~2: 2 7 4 7 . . 4. 9. 1 S. chantz6;K. ~ a t t a and ~ i r a f f a b argue that formal finance ~ institutions are rarely willing to assist with the purchase of land, especially where the tenure, is insecure, to provide assistance with improvements to the rental housing stock or to support nonconventional household arrangements such as sharing of multiplefamily  compounds. These limitations have implicit gendered consequences, as rental and shared housing are of particular importance to low income women who often lack the means to become homeowners. 4. 9. 2 M. M. valeneaZ9summarizes the conditions of Brazils housing finance system by the 1980s as one of crisis, chaos and apathy. Notoriously inadequate fund collection and loan enforcement rates exemplified housing these finance conditions. This condition of public-sector institutions accentuated by was political manipulations that passed these institutions from one ministry to another at short intervals. Valenea points out that as the economic crisis of the 1980s deepened, the fall in the real value of payroll S Chant ( 1997). Women headed Households: Diversity and Dynamics in [he l l e v e l o p i n ~ i+orld. Basingstoke: Macmillan. K. ~ a t t a (1995). Strategies for urban survival? ; Women landlords in Gabocomc Bots ana, Habitat International, 19,1: 1 12. 2X F. Miraftab (1994). Housing Preferences of Female headed Households of Low Income Families in Guadalajara, Mexico: paper presented a t the International semlnar on Gender, Urbanisation and the Environment, Nairobi. The inevitable crisis of the Brazilian housing finance s!. stem. IJrhan Sttrdies, 29,1:39-56. 119 deductions with rising unemployment, the diversion of revenue sources to fund higher priority areas of the government budget and the withdrawal of savings from negative interest rate bearing accounts left many public sector housing finance institutions short of capital. 4. 9. 3 David lsaac3 provides an introduction to property finance, bringing together the professional disciplines related to finance and property investment and development. The book establishes the basic concept of finance, examines the applications of these concepts in practice and gives an overview of the market, its history and position as of 1993. 4. 9. 4 R . M . ~ u c k l e ~ ~ ; ~ i m and N. ~ u n j e have pointed out K. H. ~ e ~ ~ that the declining effectiveness of housing finance institutions coupled with economic and fiscal crises, have made governments more aware of the need to promote savings, reduce subsidies and mobilize domestic resources and motivate the involvement of 3, David Isaac (1994): Property Finance, Macmillan Press Ltd. , London. R . M . Buckley (1996). Housing Finance in Developing Countries. Bas~ngstokc. Macmillan. K. H. Kim (1997). Housing finance and urban infrastructure finance, Urban . stl~d~r. s. 10: 1597-620. 34, 11 N Munjec (1994). Housing finance in development: is there an cmerglng paradigm for developing countries in Asia: Housing Finance I n t e r n a t i o n n l . 8. 4 6-10 11 120 private financial institutions. Many of the most restrictive practices operating in housing finance markets, such as institutional entry requirements and liquidity limits, have been lowered, loanlvalue ratio made more flexible and a wider definition given to the terms of collateral. The optimistic view was that private institutions would be able to deliver larger quantities of finance more efficiently and with a greater chance of sustainability. 4. 9. 5 T. H. ~ a l i argues that even though new private finance c ~ ~ companies have been set up, a few lower-income households qualify for loans because the eligibility criteria require proof of five years full employment, imposing a start-up fee equivalent to three months salary and taxes to approximately 25% of the loan value. Similarly US AID^^ points out that in Eastern Europe despite the establishment of DIMS i n Poland, building certificates in Russia and indexed credit systems in Bulgaria, the bottom 80 per cent of the income profile has not been reached. T. H. Malik (1994). Recent development in housing finance policy in Pakistan paper presented at 2nd symposium Housing for the Urban Poor, Birmingham. Ull~tcd States Agency for International Development (USAID) (1997). Building on progress: The Future of Housing Finance in Poland. Warsaw: USAID. 121 4. 9. 6 Thomas Klak and Marlen Economy explore Housing of the Formal Sector organisation Trust in their article. The Political (NHT), the and Housing Finance performance  states main of in Jamaica the National housing agency in distributing finance in the context of the struggle for basic needs such as shelter, state socio-economic interventions. By examining the NHTs funding base, expenditures and beneficiaries they outline the scale of the financial resource diversions that effectively restrict low-income households from obtaining NHT housing assistance. They point out that a greater share of NHTs massive financial assets could be directed towards serving the housing needs of lowincome people if the Trust were organised differently.

Childhood Shyness and Childrens Literature Essay -- Teaching Education

Childhood Shyness and Childrens Literature Understanding the Distress of Children Who Suffer from Shyness Almost everyone has felt shy at some point in his or her life. Feeling uncomfortable or anxious in a new social setting is not uncommon or something to be overly concerned about; however, there are many people whose lives suffer because of their shyness. Shyness can have many harmful effects on a person’s emotional and social well being (Bruch, 1999). Even though research on shyness has mainly focused on adults, shyness can be just as difficult, if not more difficult, for children. Because social and emotional development are so important during the school years as children are meeting and interacting with their peers, we see it as very important for teachers to be in tune with these types of developmental needs. Children’s literature is a great way to bring up and discuss emotional and social issues. We found some wonderful children’s books that teachers can use in the classroom to discuss shyness, how it affects people, and how to make others feel better w ho are shy. If you have ever known a truly shy child, you probably know how difficult being shy can be for that child. It can be very painful to see a shy child â€Å"desperately wanting to be accepted by other children yet not knowing what to do to gain their approval, or else too frightened to take the risk of trying to reach out to them† (Zimbardo, 1981, p. 4). A women expresses difficulty with having been a shy child: Growing up is painful at best, but excruciating for the shy. When others could not understand the reason for my lack of zest for life, I knew all along that my shyness was the real problem. I was terribly envious of anyone who seemed comfortable with people. Anyone who could express their thoughts verbally . . . (Zimbardo, 1981, p. 4). A child who is suffering from this much pain needs to be of concern. Anything that makes a child unhappy, such as being unpopular, not feeling comfortable around peers, and not being able to communicate thoughts or feelings directly, is hazardous to a person’s psychological well being (Kemple, 1995). Unfortunately children who suffer from shyness frequently go unnoticed by teachers and parents. Shy children are usually well behaved, quiet, and follow the rules they are supposed to (Zimbardo, 1981). Teachers may mistake a... ...ultz, S. (1999). Social anxiety. U.S. News & World Report, 24, 50-54. Seid, R. P. (1999). Dying of shyness. Joe Weider’s Shape, 18 (7), 42-44. Zimbardo, P. G. (1981). The Shy Child. U.S.A, Mexico, Toranto: McGraw-Hill Book Company. Zimbardo, P. G. (1977). Shyness what it is what to do about it. Reeding, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. Children’s Books Bechtold, L. (1999). Buster: The Very Shy Dog. New York, NY: Houghton Mifflin Co. Brown, R. (1998). The Shy Little Angel. New York, NY: Dutton Children’s Books. Glaser, L. (1993). Stop That Garbage Truck. Morton Grove, IL: Albert Whitman & Co. Henkes, O. (1993). Owen. New York, NY: Greenwillow Books. Johnston, M. (1996). Let’s Talk About Being Shy. New York, NY: PowerKids Press. Levete, S. (1996). How Do I Feel About Making Friends? Brookfield, CT: Cooper Beech Books. Lester, H. (1999). Hooway For Wodnay Wat. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Co. Mathers, P. (1991) Sophie and Lou. USA: Harper Collins Publishers. Raschka, C. (1996) The Blushful Hippopotamus. New York, NY: Orchid Books. Wood, A. (1995). Orlando’s Little-While; A Scrapbook. New York, NY: Child’s Play International LTD.

American Pragmatism final

People screaming at the top of their lungs for the rock band that they idolize; an individual buying all the books and imitating the writing style of his favorite author; a young girl imitating the clothes of her fashion idol; the aforementioned instances are familiar examples of people who are practicing the idea of fandom wherein they are becoming huge fans of famous personalities or things. The idea of becoming a fan is perceived by people in different ways.There are individuals who look at the idea of being a fan as simply liking something or someone in a degree that is not common to other people. On the other hand, there are also those people who negatively look at fans, as individuals who are going crazy or psychotic for something or someone to the point that they are becoming obsessed. There are even allegations that fans eventually become stalkers, who do untoward decisions and actions. The opposing perspective of the term â€Å"fan† entails a more in-depth study about the topic.To be able to fully understand the meaning of being a fan, it is necessary that it is given due attention and importance. In doing so, I conducted an interview with three individuals, who have different backgrounds but is idolizing the same pop star. The pop star that I focus on is Miley Cyrus. My main motivation for looking for individuals who idolizes Miley Cyrus is due to the popularity and influence of this personality. In 2008, Miley Cyrus is included in Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people in the world.Due to this, I want to find out the reasons why people idolize her and its corresponding effects to their life. Moreover, by conducting the interview with three individuals who idolize Miley Cyrus, I learn more about the idea of being a fan. Summary of Cavicchi’s Book and Argument Based on the book of Cavicchi (1998) the term â€Å"fan† is used as both descriptive and prescriptive when it comes to describing individuals that are regarded as fans. Cavicchi even states that,On the whole, it [the term â€Å"fan†] is used both descriptively and prescriptively to refer to diverse individuals and groups, including fanatics, spectators, groupies, enthusiasts, celebrity stalkers, collectors, consumers, members of subcultures, and entire audiences, and, depending on the context, to refer to complex relationships involving affinity, enthusiasm, identification, desire, obsession, possession, neurosis, hysteria, consumerism, political resistance, or a combination (39). The interest of Cavicchi with the concept of â€Å"fan† is rooted from the fact that Cavicchi himself is also a self-proclaimed fan.The book that he wrote entitled Tramps like us gives an in-depth research and analysis of being a fan, especially when it comes to its corresponding effects to the individual who is a fan of something or someone. Cavicchi uses Bruce Springsteen as an example for his central argument that fandom is actually a useful and me aningful behavior, which allows individuals to form their identities, establish communities, and make sense out of their lives and the society as a whole. Cavicchi (1998) points out that the contribution of Bruce Springsteen in the world exemplifies the advantageous effects of fandom.In the past, many critics have noted that the songs of Bruce Springsteen is unique from other singers in a sense that it actually exist in world of its own with its respective characters, settings, words, and images. The world that Springsteen creates is actually very relevant to other people wherein individuals who only have little knowledge or none at all about Springsteen can still relate with his music. Springsteen emphasizes the world of highways and factories, loners and underdogs, and many others. As such, the themes of the songs of Springsteen actually embody the ideals and struggles of most ordinary Americans.Being the case, Springsteen was able to substantially influence the American pop cultu re and also different societal debates. Springsteen has the ability to not only speak for his fans but actually to them with directness and sincerity, which actually touches the lives of his followers. Cavicchi uses three years of ethnographic research and his own experiences and impressions as a fan in writing his book. He provides an interdisciplinary study of the ways by which ordinary individuals who have special and sustained attachments to their idols actually were able to change and affect their lives because of fandom.Furthermore, it challenges the negative perception about the term â€Å"fan†, specifically the stereotypes of fans as being obsessive, delusional, and to the point of having mental problems. Cavicchi strongly emphasizes that fandom is a normal socio-cultural activity that aids in shaping the identity of individuals. Object of Fandom Destiny Hope Cyrus also popularly known as Miley Cyrus is an American pop singer, songwriter, and actress. Her rose to fame started when she stars in the Disney Channel as Hannah Montana.After the success of her television series, she released a soundtrack CD of the songs that she sang in the Hannah Montana Show. The popularity of the soundtrack CD in the American market, especially for teenagers enables her to create a solo music career with her debut album, Meet Miley Cyrus. In her first album, Miley Cyrus was able to create her first top single entitled â€Å"See You Again†. The increasing popularity of Miley Cyrus paved the way for her to launch her second album called Breakout. Both the albums of Miley Cyrus top number 1 on the Billboard 200.In addition, the single of Miley Cyrus entitled â€Å"Party in the U. S. A. † was recognized as the highest charting and fastest selling single that reach number 2 in the Billboard Hot 100. The influence of Miley Cyrus reaches different nations, which is proven by the record-breaking sales of her albums that reach more than 15 million records. Mil ey Cyrus also shines in the field of acting. Miley Cyrus first extended play was The Time of Our Lives. Miley Cyrus also performed in the concert/film Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert.In relation to this, Miley Cyrus also starred in Bolt wherein she recorded the soundtrack for the movie, which enables her to be nominated in the Golden Globe Awards. The hit show Hannah Montana was later produced in the film with Miley Cyrus as the lead star of the movie. Moreover, the prominence of Miley Cyrus in the society is recognized by Time magazine when she is included in the â€Å"100 Most Influential People in the World and she also ranked 35 on the â€Å"Celebrity 100† list of Forbes magazine for earning $25 million in 2008. Interviewee # 1The first interviewee is Zoe, a 16 years old girl that describes herself as an avid fan of Miley Cyrus. Zoe is a Caucasian American, who is currently studying in a public school. The interview was conducted through phone wherein the queries in the questionnaires were asked and were substantially answered by the respondent. The main interest of Zoe mostly deals with normal young adult hobbies like shopping and hanging out friends. In addition, Zoe also stated that she is very much interested in music, especially from modern pop artist. As previously mentioned, Zoe is a self-proclaimed Miley Cyrus fan.She said that she first get acquainted with the pop star through her series in the Disney Channel, Hannah Montana. Zoe immediately likes the character of Miley in the series and she also took notice of her exceptional singing abilities. Zoe said â€Å"Miley has an exceptional and unique singing voice that can really attract its listeners, once I heard her voice she already mesmerized me. † Zoe opted to have the complete albums of Miley Cyrus instead of just downloading it from the Internet, which she said is a way for her to actually give worth to the singing ability of her idol buy adding to her CD sales.In addition to this, Zoe is also a fan of Miley Cyrus in Facebook and she also follows her in Tweeter. The influence of Miley Cyrus on Zoe affects her fashion sense because Zoe admitted she is actually imitating the fashion sense of Miley. â€Å"I always look carefully at the outfits that she wear, as I really admire her unique fashion sense†, stated Zoe. Zoe explains in the interview that she has not really done anything outrageous as a fan of Miley, the only thing that she did is make a scrapbook of her idol, which other people finds weird.Moreover, Zoe strongly believes that Miley Cyrus exemplifies the normal life of a teenager that has to go through the awkward stage of adolescence, which Zoe can relate to. Zoe expressed in the interview that Miley Cyrus affected her life by making her believe in her dreams and do more things in her life, as Zoe said, â€Å"I can have the best of both worlds just like Miley†. Interviewee # 2 The second interviewee is Sama ntha, a 13-years old teenage girl who is a die-hard fan of Miley Cyrus. She is an African-American that is studying in a public school.Samantha’s interests usually involve watching television, playing computer games, and the occasional going out with her friends. Samantha exclaimed â€Å"I love Miley Cyrus so much! † when asked in the interview on who is her idol. She explains in the interview that she was introduced to the pop star sensation while watching Hannah Montana because her parents only allow her to watch limited channels and this include the Disney Channel. At first, she likes the comic banter between Miley Cyrus and her dad because Samantha can actually relate to it because she said that she has the same relationship with her father.Later on, Samantha is really entertained by the singing capabilities of Miley Cyrus. In relation to this, Samantha can actually relate to the lyrics of Miley Cyrus’ songs that talks about related issues about being a teen ager. Samantha keeps a collection of different Miley Cyrus memorabilia like bags, school supplies, and others. She even said that â€Å"almost all my things are Miley Cyrus inspired†. In addition, Samantha also applauds the acting capability of Miley Cyrus, especially when it comes to comedy that is why she even created her own fan page for Miley.Samantha informed me in the interview that she has not done any outrageous thing as a fan of Miley Cyrus because she believes that becoming a fan does not necessarily mean doing something â€Å"stupid†. Moreover, Samantha points out that Miley Cyrus is an inspiration to her and also to her friends because she represents teenager everywhere who are following their dreams despite the set-backs of the teenage life. Interviewee # 3 The last interviewee is an 18 years old Asia who is actually on her way of going to college.She requested that I do not state her name in the paper, as she is afraid that someone might know that she is a fan of Miley Cyrus. The hesitation of this girl in admitting that she is a fan of Miley Cyrus comes from the fact that most of her peers perceived Miley Cyrus as a loser. As a result, this girl does not have any Miley Cyrus memorabilia and she does not join any networking site about Miley Cyrus. The main reason of this girl for idolizing Miley Cyrus is because she can relate with the life of the pop star.She states that â€Å"Miley Cyrus is just a typical teenager who commits mistakes like her photo scandal and other boyfriend troubles . . . she is being real to herself and to her public. † The girl idolizes Miley Cyrus because of her courage to be true to herself and to others even if she is already popular. In relation to this, she also thinks that Miley Cyrus is a strong individual that can properly handle all the criticisms that come her way. Being the case, Miley Cyrus influences this girl to also be true to herself and never give up. AnalysisBased on the answers of th e three interviewees it is quite observable that most of Miley Cyrus fans are teenage girls who are undergoing the difficult and confusing stage of adolescence. Their main reasons for idolizing Miley Cyrus are due to her singing and acting talents as well as the way she handles herself. The interviewed fans of Miley Cyrus have not done any outrageous or stupid things for their idol because of the reason that they have other outlets in order to express their enthusiasm and support for Miley Cyrus such as buying her albums, patronizing her products, and joining/creating networking sites.However, in the situation of one girl, she cannot freely express that Miley Cyrus is her idol because of the negative perception of her friends when it comes to the pop star. From the answers of the interviewee it is clearly proven that Miley Cyrus becomes an influential and powerful personality in the society because she represents the life of most teenagers.Miley Cyrus’ songs, television serie s, and even her life exemplify the issues and problems of an average American teenager. Miley Cyrus has substantially contributed to the American pop culture because most of her fans can actually relate with her life. Moreover, Miley Cyrus has her way of actually inspiring the lives of teenagers through her songs and the characters that she portrays, which embody a strong woman that will not give up amidst the challenges of life.

Post-Modern Analysis of Hr Gigers The Birth Machine

A Postmodern analysis of H.R. Gigers: The Birth Machine Contents 1. Introduction to Essay: Premodern, Modern and Post Modern Art 2. The Artist, Hans Rudi Giger and The Birth Machine 3. The Birth Machine 4. Picture: The Birth Machine 5. The Philosophical Narrative a. My chosen philosophical narrative (Postmodernism) b. Analysis of the piece through postmodernism 6. The Poem: Der Atom Kinder 7. Critical Evaluation 8. Conclusion 9. Picture: Bullet Baby and Iron Cast Copy 10. Bibliography Introduction: Premodern, Modern and Postmodern art forms Various styles of art change and mould to fit the times, as do their artists. It then follows that a number of eras are identifiable in history with the previous style or form of†¦show more content†¦The Artist, Hans Rudi Giger and The Birth Machine HR GIGER The Swiss surrealist, Hans Rudi Giger is one of the few artists worldwide who does not and doesnt to sign his works of art. He is considered the modern day master of the macabre and his works are recognisable at first glance. The motifs of birth, death and sex are the predominant subjects of Gigers art. From the beginning of his career, powerful elements, seemingly inspired by repressed memories of a traumatic birth, appeared from his talented hand. He willingly acknowledges that themes of birth trauma appear in his works. By 1966 he had begun producing a series of shaft pictures which had their primary origins in dreams. Bottomless shafts, undoubtedly representative of the birth canal, surrounded by a series of steep banister-less stairways the embodying fear and danger predominated these pictures. Other works produced at that time had birth allusions, and included underground cities as well as buried bio-mechanoids. These humanoid beings combined features of humans with mechanical equipment. Continuing the birth trauma passage theme in his art, Giger later became engrossed with passages. These pictures were the result of a series of dreams. He writes, in these I usually found myself in a large white room without doors or windows, the only exit aShow MoreRelated Post-Modern Analysis Of Hr Gigers the birth machine Essay3292 Words   |  14 Pages A Postmodern analysis of H.R. Gigers: quot;The Birth Machinequot; Contents 1.nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;Introduction to Essay: Premodern, Modern and Post Modern Art 2.nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;The Artist, Hans Rudi Giger and quot;The Birth Machinequot; 3.nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;quot;The Birth Machinequot; 4.nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;Picture: quot;The Birth Machinequot; 5.nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;The Philosophical Narrative a.nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;MyRead MoreThe Knife1115 Words   |  5 PagesEnglish  /  Short Stories- amp;Quot;The Knifeamp;Quot; By Judah Waten Textual AnalysisShort Stories- amp;Quot;The Knifeamp;Quot; By Judah Waten Textual AnalysisThis  essay Short Stories- amp;Quot;The Knifeamp;Quot; By Judah Waten Textual Analysis  is available for you on Essays24.com! Search Term Papers, College Essay Examples and Free Essays on Essays24.com - full papers database. Autor:  Ã‚  anton  Ã‚  24 November 2010Tags:   StoriesWords:  2398  Ã‚  Ã‚  |  Ã‚  Ã‚  Pages:  10Views:  1338Save essay in my profilePrintable

Difference Between Genocide And War - 1166 Words

Is there a difference between genocide and war? The idea and concepts of conflict are often misunderstood. To many, any form of conflict is war. War can be defined as a direct violent encounter between two or more opposing parties with a view to gaining access to an object of their mutual interests. It is usually accompanied by the use of weapons such as guns, bows and arrows, machetes, sticks, biological weapons, and weapons of mass destruction. (Insert bibliography #1). Genocide has been described as a specific term, referring to violent crimes committed against particular groups, with the intent to destroy the existence of such groups (insert bibliography #1). Having said that, one common factor often exhibited by genocide perpetrators is to destroy a group perceived to be a threat to the ruling power. The purpose of this paper is to take a look at both the historic and political causes for the Rwanda Genocide, and to distinguish whether ethnicity was the cause or was it the aspec t of the conflict. Rwanda is a small country located in central Africa. It borders with Uganda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Tanzania. One of the most terrible â€Å"ethnic conflicts† occurred here in 1994, two tribes fought each other within the same territory, the rest of the world bizarrely ignored this event and thousands of people were killed. The event lasted 100 days and almost 1 million people died, even though the Rwanda government asked other countries for militaryShow MoreRelatedBosnian Rwandan Genocide Comparison Essay834 Words   |  4 PagesAnalyze the similarities and differences between the genocide committed in Rwanda and Yugoslavia in the 1990s. The Rwandan and Bosnian Genocides were more similar than different due to the fact that both were supported by the governing force at the time, and both were ignited due to past tensions between two separate ethnicities. The Rwandan and Bosnian Genocides were similar in the fact that both were supported by the ruling force at the time. The Rwandan Genocide, was organized by the newlyRead MoreThe Conflict Of The Rwandan Civil War889 Words   |  4 PagesThroughout history, civilizations have collided because of the many differences. Whatever the differences may be, much can be described as a fault line war. These wars have characteristics of the bloody massacres that are led on by ownership in territory and contain non-governmental groups at the helm of the massacre. Inevitably, these wars result in ethnic cleansing of the weaker group. Kenneth J. Campbell, Associate Professor Emeritus at University of Delaware, claims that â€Å"In 1992, Rwanda’s populationRead MoreThe Conflict Of The Rwandan Civil War887 Words   |  4 PagesClash of Civilizations Throughout history civilizations have collided because of many differences. Whatever the differences may be, much can be described as a fault line war. These wars have characteristics of bloody massacres that are led on by ownership in territory and contain non-governmental groups at the helm of the massacre. Inevitably, these wars result in ethnic cleansing of the weaker group. Kenneth J. Campbell, Associate Professor Emeritus at University of Delaware, claims that â€Å"In 1992Read MoreThe Killings And Destruction Of Cultures Throughout The Us, Australia, And German South Africa1750 Words   |  7 Pagesperspectives. 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Personal Narrative A Day Fun Day - 1738 Words

This year our Schumacher family started a tradition that hopefully will last forever. Ever since I was born, my Grandpa Grandma would pay for all of us to go to Embassy Suites once a year. It was very fun, but after a while it got to wear we all just sat around and watched TV. So, we decided to have a 2-3 day fun day. This year we tried something different. A family campout at Uncle Brian Aunt Dawn’s house. On August 11, around Four-o clock, we packed our vehicle, stuffed to the brim with junk food and games, headed for the campout. When we arrived, we set up our tents in their backyard and small timber. Me, Kayley, Callie, and Amber set up our 4-person tent in-between the timber and the house. After everyone arrived, several of us†¦show more content†¦The girls got light-up blue bracelets and the boys got green. There was a bunch of red pegs for the boundary lines and pegs according to your color for your jail. We were thrilled to see the boys had placed their jail close to the boundary line while we had placed ours very far away. Each team was also given a orb-type light-up ball to hide, according to your color. This was considered the â€Å"flag†. It was very entertaining. The most scary thing I played that night was assasin. In this game someone is supposed to hide somewhere around the yard. The other players count inside for a few minutes. When you come outside, you try to find the assassin without being grabbed by him out of nowhere. If you see him you run to the safe place and you survived that round. If you are grabbed, you have to be the assassin the next round. We paired up because we all were very frightened.. Kayley I were partners which may have been a bad choice. We had a lot of caffeine that night, enough stay up for 2 days. We decided to drink water as a refreshing, cooling drink while we searched for the assassin. It had the least amount of calories and wouldn’t make us hiccup the whole time and give away where we were walking. It was very eery out, not a person in sight scared of where Travis was hiding. He was very good at hide-and-go-seek so we were frightened to the bones. We could not find him anywhere so we went to the middl e of the yard where we could somewhat pick out figures walking byShow MoreRelatedMy Family And Education Is Important For Your Future1221 Words   |  5 Pages Furthermore, there are some influences within broader culture that compliment and also contradicts the themes in my family’s narrative. The first theme in society that contradicts the values of my family is homosexuality. As mentioned above, religion is a large part of my family, therefore, homosexuality is not part of the catholic religion. With that being said my family has a strong opinion and belief about same sex relationships. 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Living in a flat in Wellington, these modern day vampires are faced with the mundanities of everyday life, and things such as paying rent, trying to get into nightclubs and overcoming flatmate conflicts prove to be extremel y difficultRead MoreMy Field Observation Site And Its Goal As A School Essay1619 Words   |  7 Pagesequipped teachers from around the globe. My Field Experience: Connections to Educational Psychology I was assigned to Mrs. Ramirez’s 1st grade class, it was a lovely class that consisted of many diverse students. I remember walking in on my first day of shadowing and being in complete awe at the ability of students. I couldn’t believe that these 6 yr old kids, some who aren’t even hispanic, were fluent in two languages. 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Prospective Analysis Forecasting Essay Example For Students

Prospective Analysis: Forecasting Essay Chapter 6: Prospective Analysis: Forecasting Key Concepts in Chapter 6 †¢ Strategy, accounting and financial performance analyses provide valuable information that help to shape forecast assumptions. †¢ Forecasts of future performance should be comprehensive, including all condensed financial statements. †¢ The starting point for forecasts should be the time series behaviour of key measures such as sales growth, earnings and ROE (and its components). Overall Structure of the Forecast †¢ Typically a few key strategic drivers are critical to forecasting future firm performance. For example, breakthrough technologies, business alliances, and business line expansions. †¢ A practical approach begins with deriving condensed financial statements that contain key elements of the income statement, balance sheet, and statement of cash flows. †¢ Typically, estimating future sales is the critical first step in arriving at forecasted financial statement information. Performance Behaviour: A Starting Point †¢ Past performance may be used to understand the behaviour of key measures such as sales or earnings. Studying the time series of measures such as earnings can provide insights into trends for future performance. †¢ Measures from prior periods provide benchmarks to compare forecasts against. Key Accounting Measures †¢ Sales Growth Behaviour: – Growth rates tend to be mean-reverting. – Revert over time to a normal level- between 7% to 9% within 3 to 10 years †¢ Earnings Behaviour: – On average, follow a random walk or random walk with drift – Long-term trends tend to be sustained, on average. Sales Growth Rates Over Time Key Accounting Measures †¢ Return on Equity Behaviour: ROE behaviour is dependent on both earnings and the asset base. – Organisations with high (low) ROE tend to experience earnings declines(increases). – Organisations with higher ROEs tend to expand their investment bases more quickly than their earning growth. – Patterns tend to be mean-reverting. – Revert over time to a normal level- between 10% to 15% within no more than 10 years. ROE Behaviour Over Time Decomposing ROE for Further Analysis †¢ ROE may be decomposed ultimately to the following components: ROE = NOPAT margin * Operating asset turnover + Spread * Net financial leverage Analysing the behaviour of the components from 1988 – 2005 provided the following insights: – Operating asset turnover and net financial leverage tend to be rather stable – NOPAT margin is the most variable component of ROE, and drives changes in the spread. †¢ Preliminary analyses can assist with conducting forecasts. †¢ Using Michael Hill as an example: – Business strategy analysis: Is Michael Hill’s strategy of growth through geographic expansion likely to be profitable? – Accounting analysis: Has Michael Hill overstated earnings or assets, or understated expenses or liabilities? Financial analysis: What are the sources of superior performance, and is it sustainable? How Forecasting Relates to Other Analyses Sales Growth and Macroeconomic Factors †¢ The impact of changing macroeconomic conditions is sufficiently unpredictable to focus on the firm’s competitive position and strategy †¢ Sales growth has historically met and exceeded investor expectations, but future competition suggests that a slowing trend in the rate of growth is likely. NOPAT Margins †¢ As a cost leader Michael Hill relies on and can achieve a lower margin. Its margin have been low recently due to its geographic expansion, and a short term recovery is expected. †¢ In the lon g run margins are expected to revert to the mean, as a result of increasing competition. Other Measures for Michael Hill †¢ Working capital to sales – likely to decrease as inventory build up is sold. †¢ Long-term assets to sales – likely to increase prior to new stores generating revenues, but will stabilise at long term mean rate of 9%. †¢ Capital structure – higher debt to fund new stores maintained in short term.It is expected to be replaced by equity over the medium term. .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 , .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .postImageUrl , .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 , .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8:hover , .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8:visited , .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8:active { border:0!important; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8:active , .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8 .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .u951695aaaeeab9951e46897106b616f8:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Tess Of The DUbervilles Essay Making Forecasts, Michael Hill Though Michael Hill has a history of generating above-market returns, mean-reverting behaviour is expected. One year ahead forecast for Michael Hill †¢ A relatively simple extrapolation of recent trends. †¢ Strong sales growth and an improved NOPAT margin are expected. †¢ Working capital and long-term assets are known from previous balance sheet. †¢ Cost of debt assumed to remain low. †¢ Forecast is higher profit than previous year. Michael Hill Overall Forecast Beyond Year One The following assumptions explain the mean reversion of returns that underlie the overall forecast for Michael Hill’s performance: – Gradually declining Sales growth – Lower NOPAT margin after an initial recovery – Historically good asset turnovers likely to be eroded in the longer term – Relative cost of debt will be similar to prior years – The magnitude of Michael Hill’s competitive advantage over its rivals will decline over time. Michael Hill’s Forecasted Financial Statements Michael Hill’s Forecasted Financial Statements (cont. Sensitivity Analysis †¢ Forecasts should be done with more than one possible set of assumptions in mind. †¢ It is important to consider historical patterns of performance, changes in industry conditions and changes in a company’s competitive strategy. †¢ In Michael Hill’s case, a possible alternative situation to that used for the forecasted financial statements in Table 6. 4: – Downside case: If geographic expansion is unsuccessful, its performance will revert to the mean more quickly, and return on equity will be lower Upside cases may also be considered. Concluding Comments †¢ Forecasting is the first step in prospective analysis of firm performance. †¢ Preliminary business strategy, accounting and financial analysis should form the basis for many assumptions used in forecasting. †¢ Forecasts should be comprehensive and include key elements of the financial statements. †¢ When forecasting, the time series behaviour of various statistics should be kept in mind.